Fanns det ett avtal i Libanon – Var Israel redo att slå till mot Hizballah?

Med hänsyn tagen till att Debka är en Israelisk webplats är det ganska intressant vad de rapporterar. Och ironiskt om Washingtons lojala allierade Gangea, Sionora, Hariri och Jumblatt agerade efter vad de trodde var en samordnad plan. Där de medvetet utmanade Hizballah på ett sätt som gjorde att organisationen var tvungen att reagera. Och det var Israel som sedan sålde ut/inte vågade genomföra planen.

För mig finns det vis logik i historien. Det skulle iallafall förklara det minst sagt vårdslösa agerandet från Jumblatt och övriga. Man förväntade sig Israelisk hjälp. Det påminer om den kupp som Dahlan skulle organisera i Gaza som slutade med att Hamas gjorde en motkupp och kastade ut de amerikanska allierade. Om inte annat har finns det vanliga inkompetensen som verkar vara en signatur för vad än Bush administrationen och dess allierade gör i mellanöstern.

…May 11, the Israeli army was poised to strike Hizballah. The Shiite militia was winding up its takeover of West Beirut and battling pro-government forces in the North. When he opened the regular cabinet meeting Sunday, May 11, prime minister Ehud Olmert had already received the go-ahead from Washington for a military strike to halt the Hizballah advance. The message said that President George W. Bush would not call off his visit to Israel to attend its 60th anniversary celebrations and would arrive as planned Wednesday, May 14 – even if the Israeli army was still fighting in Lebanon and Hizballah struck back against Tel Aviv and Ben-Gurion airport.

American intelligence estimated that Hizballah was capable of retaliating against northern Israel at the rate of 600 missiles a day.

Olmert, defense minister Ehud Barak and foreign minister Tzipi Lvini, the only ministers in the picture, decided not to intervene in Lebanon’s civil conflict. Iran’s surrogate army consequently waltzed unchecked to its second victory in two years over the United States and Israel.

DEBKAfile’s US and military sources disclose the arguments Washington marshaled to persuade Israel to go ahead: Hizballah, after its electronic trackers had learned from the Israel army’s communication and telephone networks that not a single troop or tank was on the move, took the calculated risk of transferring more than 5,000 armed men from the South to secure the capture of West Beirut.

This presented a rare moment to take Hizballah by surprise, Washington maintained. The plan outlined in Washington was for the Israeli Air force to bombard Hizballah’s positions in the South, the West and southern Beirut. This would give the pro-government Christian, Sunni and Druze forces the opening for a counter-attack. Israeli tanks would simultaneously drive into the South and head towards Beirut in two columns.

1. The western column would take the Tyre-Sidon-Damour-Beirut coastal highway.

2. The eastern column would press north through Nabatiya, Jezzine, Ain Zchalta and Alei.

Sunday night, Olmert called Lebanese prime minister Fouad Siniora and his allies, the Sunni majority leader Saad Hariri, head of the mainline Druze party Walid Jumblatt and Christian Phalanges chief Samir Geagea and informed them there would be no Israeli strike against Hizballah. Jerusalem would not come to their aid.

According to American sources, the pro-Western front in Beirut collapsed then and there, leaving Hizballah a free path to victory. The recriminations from Washington sharpened day by day and peaked with President Bush’s arrival in Israel.

Our sources report that, behind the protestations of undying American friendship and camaraderie shown in public by the US president, prime minister and Shimon Peres, Bush and his senior aides bitterly reprimanded Israel for its passivity in taking up the military challenge and crushing an avowed enemy in Lebanon.

While the president was busy with ceremonies and speeches, secretary of state Condoleezza Rice and national security adviser Stephen Hadley took Israeli officials to task. Hadley in particular bluntly blamed Israel for the downfall of the pro-Western government bloc in Beirut and its surrender to the pro-Iranian, Pro-Syrian Hizballah. If Israeli forces had struck Hizballah gunmen wile on the move, he said, Hassan Nasrallah would not have seized Beirut and brought the pro-government militias to their knees

DEBKAfile – Israel’s Missed Boat in Lebanon

 

Jag undrar om detta hade hänt när den Amerikanska ambassadören Feltman fortfarande fanns i Beirut och samordnade kontakterna mellan alla 14 mars miliserna. Veckans strider verka så amatörmässigt utförda utan någon tanke på vad man ville åstadkomma. Var det ett dåligt försök att åstadkomma något efter krav från sina utländska allierad? Det var ju inte länge sedan både Junblatt och Hairi var på turne i USA där de möte Cheney och Eliott Abrams.

Sen är det utmärkande att armechefen vägrade lyda order från regeringschefen Sionora att ta sig an Hezbolah.  Det är  armen som nu istället får ta över områden efter att de rensats från Hezbolah. Att den gamle kristna generalen Aoun och armechefen Suleiman tar sida för Hezbolah är ganska logiskt. Om inte annat ser de vart utvecklingen går i regionen. Det var också den Libanesiska armen som fick rädda Hairiri och Jumblatt när deras compunds anfölls.
Kollapsen av 14 mars rörelsen

Om Claes

A blogger and general internet nerd from Sweden. I write about politics, internet, technology, the world around me and whatever else interest me. I write mostly in swedish but some english.
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